Arthur Fils - Brandon Nakashima: our prediction

Arthur Fils is the designated favorite (odds 1.33). His statistics are impressive: 80% wins in the last 10 matches and a 100% win rate when favored (10/10). He also has a 2-set win rate of 70% outside Grand Slams. Against Nakashima (60% wins, 60% wins as favorite), the statistical superiority and low odds justify very high confidence.

Arthur Fils often finishes his matches in 2 sets (70% of the time outside Grand Slams). As a favorite, this rate is 60%. Nakashima, for his part, loses 50% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite. Given Fils' favorite status and both players' tendency to finish matches quickly (especially Fils), the probability of a match in two sets (2-0 or 2-1 victory) is high, which corresponds to 'Under 2.5 Sets'.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in under 2.5 sets. A match in two sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-3 = 19 games) has a high chance of staying under the 22.5 games mark. Even a tight three-set match can sometimes exceed this total. However, the high probability of a clear Fils victory in two sets, combined with his high 2-set win rate, supports medium confidence for this bet on the number of games.