Rugby

Tennis

Arthur Fils - Lorenzo Musetti: our prediction

17/04/2026•16:00

Arthur Fils

2:0

6•3

6•4

Finished

#11

Lorenzo Musetti

Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Preview — Barcelona Open

Arthur Fils faces Lorenzo Musetti at the Barcelona Open on clay. Fils, in solid form (80% wins in last 10 matches), is a slight underdog according to the odds. Musetti, the favorite, shows good consistency (70% wins). Statistics suggest a tight match, potentially going to three sets.

Our Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics from the last 10 matches show both players have a high rate of 3-set matches whether as favorite or underdog (e.g., 30-40% in 3 sets outside Majors). Musetti often loses a set as favorite (70%). The very tight odds (1.91 vs 1.85) reinforce the idea of a balanced and extended match.

2.22

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

This bet is consistent with the over 2.5 sets prediction. A three-set match on clay, a slow surface, often generates over 22 games. Furthermore, Musetti's set loss statistics (70%) and Fils' solid form suggest tight sets, increasing the total number of games.

1.82

Confidence

High

Victory for Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti is designated as the favorite by the bookmakers (odds 1.85). He has a good win rate as favorite (80% in last 10 matches). His preferred surface is clay. However, his tendency to lose sets (70% loss of at least one set as favorite) makes this bet risky, hence medium confidence.

1.91

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Arthur Fils	Lorenzo Musetti
Win \| Lose	8 2	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	16%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	83%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	77%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	75%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%