Rugby

Tennis

Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego: our prediction

22/01/2026•01:40

#11

Lorenzo Musetti

3:0

6•3

6•4

Finished

#22

Lorenzo Sonego

Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Preview — Australian Open ATP

Italian clash in the first round of the Australian Open. Lorenzo Musetti, the favorite and higher-ranked player, faces his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. Recent statistics and odds suggest a tight match, with a high probability of the favorite losing at least one set.

Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego predictions

Lorenzo Musetti to Win

Musetti is clearly the favorite (odds 1.34). His statistics as a favorite are solid (80% win rate). He is the more consistent and technically superior player on hard court. No known injury concerns.

1.36

Confidence

High

Over 3.5 Sets in the Match

Grand Slam statistics indicate a strong trend towards long matches. Musetti loses at least 1 set as a favorite 70% of the time. Sonego, as an outsider, wins at least 1 set 60% of the time. A 4-set match is highly probable.

1.57

Confidence

High

Over 32.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a 4-set (or more) match makes this bet consistent. A tight 4-set match (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 = 41 games) easily exceeds the line. Even a very contested 3-set match could reach it. The recent form of both players suggests balanced sets.

1.46

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Lorenzo Musetti	Lorenzo Sonego
Win \| Lose	6 4	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	80%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	70%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	90%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	40%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%