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Lorenzo Musetti - Valentin Vacherot: our prediction

08/04/2026•18:00

#11

Lorenzo Musetti

0:2

6•7

5•7

Finished

#19

Valentin Vacherot

Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Lorenzo Musetti, the match favorite, faces Valentin Vacherot at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Recent statistics show a clear superiority for Musetti, especially when favored. No injury alerts have been reported for either player.

Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot predictions

Lorenzo Musetti to Win

Musetti is clearly the favorite (odds 1.48). His statistics are solid: 80% win rate in his last 10 matches and 90% win rate when favored. He faces Vacherot, who has a 60% win rate and a less convincing performance as an outsider (20%). On clay in Monte Carlo, Musetti's advantage should be decisive.

1.45

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics indicate a high probability of a two-set match. Outside Grand Slams, Musetti has 50% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite, and Vacherot has 70% of his matches in 2 sets when favored. Furthermore, Musetti rarely loses a set as an outsider (only 20% of his matches go to 3 sets). Musetti's odds (1.48) suggest a relatively comfortable win.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

With a prediction of a two-set match (under 2.5 sets), the total number of games is very likely to be under 22.5. A tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 6-4) totals 22 games. Musetti's statistics as a favorite show he can win sets with comfortable margins, thus reducing the total number of games. However, Vacherot could resist in some games, hence a medium confidence level.

1.76

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Lorenzo Musetti	Valentin Vacherot
Win \| Lose	8 2	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	50%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	100%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	85%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	16%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	25%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%