Sumit Nagal vs Francisco Cerundolo — Prediction
13/04/2026•13:10
#92
Sumit Nagal
0:2
2•6
2•6
Finished
#15
Francisco Cerundolo
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Sumit Nagal, underdog, faces Francisco Cerundolo, favorite, on clay at the BMW Open. Cerundolo, more experienced and performing better on this surface, is expected to win, but Nagal could resist and take a set.
Our predictions
Francisco Cerundolo to Win
Cerundolo is clearly favored (60% wins in the last 10 matches vs. 30% for Nagal). On clay, his preferred surface, and as a favorite, he has a 70% win rate. No reported injuries contradict this trend.
1.5
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Nagal wins at least one set in 70% of cases as an underdog. Cerundolo loses a set in 40% of cases as a favorite. Their historical statistics outside Majors show a strong propensity for 3-set matches (60% for Nagal, 20% for Cerundolo, but as an underdog, Nagal is at 50%).
2.1
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
With a predicted 3-set match, the total games should exceed 22.5. Sets on clay are often tight, and both players can exchange breaks. The likelihood of contested sets supports this bet.
1.9
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 14% | 66% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 57% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 83% | 0% |
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