Rugby

Tennis

Alex Molcan - Ben Shelton: our prediction

18/04/2026•15:35

#44

Alex Molcan

0:2

3•6

4•6

Finished

Ben Shelton

Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Preview — BMW Open

Ben Shelton, the clear favorite (odds 1.39), faces Alex Molcan (odds 2.95) at the BMW Open. Statistics show a strong tendency for Shelton to play 3-set matches (80% outside Majors) and superior recent form (7W/3L vs 9W/1L). Molcan, in excellent form, could offer resistance.

Our Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton predictions

Ben Shelton to Win

Shelton is the logical favorite (odds 1.39). His recent form is solid (7W/3L) and his statistics as a favorite are good (80% wins). Molcan is in form (9W/1L) but his performances as an underdog are less convincing (50% wins). The surface and tournament context should favor Shelton's offensive game.

1.36

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

The statistics are very clear: Shelton plays 80% of his matches (outside Majors) in 3 sets when he is the favorite. Molcan, in excellent form (90% wins in last 10 matches), has a 60% chance of winning at least one set as an underdog against a favorite priced between 1.21 and 1.50. The probability of a 3-set match is therefore high.

2.32

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

The prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5) mechanically increases the chances of exceeding 22.5 games. A 2-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) reaches 24 games. A 3-set match, even with one easy set, often exceeds this limit. Given Molcan's form and Shelton's tendency to lose sets as a favorite (70%), a close match is likely, supporting this bet.

1.74

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alex Molcan	Ben Shelton
Win \| Lose	9 1	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	14%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	85%	30%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	75%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%