Rugby

Tennis

Denis Shapovalov - Alex Molcan: our prediction

17/04/2026•17:40

#14

Denis Shapovalov

0:2

4•6

Finished

#44

Alex Molcan

Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Preview — BMW Open

Denis Shapovalov, the favorite (odds 1.73), faces Alex Molcan (odds 2.08) at the BMW Open. Shapovalov shows solid form (80% recent wins) but a tendency to lose sets as a favorite. Molcan, confident (8 wins in 10), is a dangerous underdog, especially on clay. A tight match is in prospect.

Our Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan predictions

Denis Shapovalov to Win

Shapovalov is the designated favorite (odds 1.73) with excellent recent form (80% wins in last 10 matches). Although Molcan is confident, Shapovalov's overall level and experience, especially as a favorite (60% wins in this role), should make the difference on clay.

1.71

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Statistics indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Shapovalov often loses a set as a favorite (70% of cases). Molcan, in great form (80% wins), has a high ability to win at least one set as an underdog (70%). The encounter should therefore be competitive.

2.26

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

With a high probability of a 3-set match, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Both players are competitive and sets could be tight. The clay surface favors long rallies, increasing the number of games per set.

1.91

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Denis Shapovalov	Alex Molcan
Win \| Lose	5 5	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	14%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	85%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	33%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	60%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	60%