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Denis Shapovalov - Alexander Blockx: our prediction

06/04/2026•16:25

#14

Denis Shapovalov

1:2

4•6

6•4

3•6

Finished

Alexander Blockx

Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Denis Shapovalov, the favorite and experienced player, faces the young Alexander Blockx at the Monte Carlo Masters on clay. Shapovalov, although less consistent recently, holds a technical advantage and significant experience on this surface. Blockx, promising but less seasoned at the top level, could offer resistance, but sporting logic favors the Canadian.

Our Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx predictions

Denis Shapovalov to Win

Shapovalov is clearly the favorite (odds 1.81). His experience, power, and aptitude on clay (the tournament surface) give him a clear advantage. His statistics as a favorite (60% wins in the last 10 matches) are solid. Blockx, although a recent Challenger winner, lacks experience at this level and his statistics as an outsider against favorites priced around 1.81 are limited.

1.94

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Shapovalov tends to lose sets as a favorite (60% in the last 10). Furthermore, Blockx shows an ability to win at least one set as an outsider (80% in the last 10). The match is played in a best-of-3 sets format (Masters 1000), increasing the probability of a match going to 3 sets or more. Shapovalov's statistics in major tournaments outside Grand Slams indicate 40% of matches go to 3 sets.

2.3

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) makes over 22.5 games likely. A match in 2 straight sets (6-4, 6-4) would total 20 games. A 3-set match, even with tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 = 32 games), comfortably exceeds the line. Given the offensive profile of both players and the slow surface (clay), breaks may not be too frequent, favoring tight sets and a high total game count.

1.95

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Denis Shapovalov	Alexander Blockx
Win \| Lose	5 5	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	100%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	100%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	33%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	0%