Rugby

Tennis

Denis Shapovalov - Fabian Marozsan: our prediction

16/04/2026•16:10

#14

Denis Shapovalov

2:0

7•6

6•2

Finished

#54

Fabian Marozsan

Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan Preview — BMW Open

Denis Shapovalov, former top 10 player, faces Fabian Marozsan, the bookmakers' favorite, at the BMW Open on clay. Shapovalov, struggling recently, seeks to regain his best form against the more consistent and confident Marozsan. A tight match with potentially multiple sets is expected.

Our Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics show a strong trend towards 3-set matches for both players in non-Grand Slam tournaments (60% for Shapovalov, 50% for Marozsan in the last 10 matches). Furthermore, Shapovalov, as an underdog, often wins at least one set (60%), while Marozsan, as the favorite, often loses one (60%). The odds of 1.67 for Over 2.5 sets offer good value.

2.28

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

This bet is consistent with the Over 2.5 sets prediction. A 3-set match (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) already totals 30 games. Even a tight 2-set match (7-5, 7-5) gives 24 games. Given the previous analysis favoring a long and tight match, Over 22.5 games is plausible. The odds of 2.14 offer good potential return for moderate risk.

1.93

Confidence

Medium

Fabian Marozsan to win

Marozsan is designated as the favorite by the bookmakers (odds 1.67). His recent statistics are slightly better (50% win rate as favorite vs. 60% for Shapovalov, but on a different sample). Shapovalov is on a downward trend (20% win rate as underdog). However, confidence is only medium because Shapovalov has a higher level on paper and can be dangerous.

1.7

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Denis Shapovalov	Fabian Marozsan
Win \| Lose	5 5	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	50%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	70%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	25%	60%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	75%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	60%