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Denis Shapovalov - Jannik Sinner: our prediction

08/03/2026•23:40

#14

Denis Shapovalov

0:2

3•6

2•6

Finished

Jannik Sinner

Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Jannik Sinner, the undisputed favorite (odds 1.03), faces Denis Shapovalov in a Masters 1000 hard court match. Recent statistics show a clear superiority for Sinner, with solid form and great efficiency in closing matches in two sets.

Our Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner predictions

Jannik Sinner to Win

Sinner is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.03. His statistics are overwhelming: 80% wins in his last 10 matches, and 90% of his wins as favorite are in 2 sets. No injuries reported. Shapovalov, with only 20% wins as an outsider, seems largely outmatched.

1.04

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Sinner finishes 90% of his won matches (as favorite) in 2 sets. Shapovalov, as an outsider, wins a set only 50% of the time. The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 win for Sinner) is very high, which corresponds to 'Under 2.5 sets'.

1.17

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

If Sinner wins 2-0 as expected, a tight score (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) would give 20 games. A lost set by Shapovalov could be tight, but Sinner's dominance suggests potentially wide scores (e.g., 6-3, 6-2 = 17 games). The 'Under 22.5' is consistent with a one-sided match.

1.29

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Denis Shapovalov	Jannik Sinner
Win \| Lose	6 4	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	70%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	80%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	66%