Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic — Prediction

Sonego is in better recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches vs 40% for Lajovic). He is more effective as a favorite (70% win rate) than Lajovic (50%). In non-Grand Slam matches, Sonego often plays tight matches (60% in 3 sets), showing his competitiveness. The odds of 2.14 offer good value.

Player statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match. Sonego played 60% of his recent non-Grand Slam matches in 3 sets. Lajovic, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 60% of cases against favorites with similar odds (1.51-1.80). Both players have a 'Loses 1 set as favorite' statistic of 50%, suggesting even the favorite (Sonego) could drop a set.

The prediction of a three-set match (Over 2.5 sets) makes Over 22.5 games very likely. A two-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) totals 24 games. A three-set match, even with one easy set, usually exceeds this limit (e.g., 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 = 29 games). Given Sonego's tendency for tight matches and Lajovic's ability to win sets, the total number of games should be high.