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Lorenzo Sonego - Dusan Lajovic: our prediction

22/04/2026•14:40

#22

Lorenzo Sonego

0:2

3•6

6•7

Finished

#14

Dusan Lajovic

Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic Preview — Madrid Open

Lorenzo Sonego faces Dusan Lajovic at the Madrid Open on clay. Sonego, a slight favorite according to the odds, shows solid recent form (6 wins out of 10). Lajovic, the underdog, has a less convincing win statistic as a favorite. The match could be tight, with a tendency for Sonego to play three-set matches.

Our Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic predictions

Lorenzo Sonego to Win

Sonego is in better recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches vs 40% for Lajovic). He is more effective as a favorite (70% win rate) than Lajovic (50%). In non-Grand Slam matches, Sonego often plays tight matches (60% in 3 sets), showing his competitiveness. The odds of 2.14 offer good value.

2.14

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Player statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match. Sonego played 60% of his recent non-Grand Slam matches in 3 sets. Lajovic, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 60% of cases against favorites with similar odds (1.51-1.80). Both players have a 'Loses 1 set as favorite' statistic of 50%, suggesting even the favorite (Sonego) could drop a set.

2.3

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a three-set match (Over 2.5 sets) makes Over 22.5 games very likely. A two-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) totals 24 games. A three-set match, even with one easy set, usually exceeds this limit (e.g., 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 = 29 games). Given Sonego's tendency for tight matches and Lajovic's ability to win sets, the total number of games should be high.

1.85

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Lorenzo Sonego	Dusan Lajovic
Win \| Lose	6 4	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	80%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	37%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	40%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	62%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	60%