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Lorenzo Sonego - Pierre-Hugues Herbert: our prediction

24/05/2026•20:10

#22

Lorenzo Sonego

3:2

7•6

5•7

6•2

1•6

6•4

Finished

#31

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Preview — Roland Garros ATP

First round match at Roland Garros between Lorenzo Sonego, the favorite, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Sonego is favored with odds of 1.46, but Herbert has shown good ability to win as an underdog (50% wins). The match could be tight, with a tendency to go 4 sets or more.

Our Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert predictions

Victory for Lorenzo Sonego

Sonego is the favorite with odds of 1.46, reflecting his seeded status and higher ATP ranking. He has a 60% win rate as a favorite in his career, and 100% when odds are between 1.21 and 1.5. Herbert, while capable of surprises, has only a 40% win rate as an underdog in his career. The clay court and Grand Slam format favor Sonego.

1.52

Confidence

High

Over 3.5 sets in the match

Statistics show a strong tendency for long matches in Grand Slams for both players. Sonego has 70% of his Grand Slam matches going to 4 sets or more, and Herbert 60%. Additionally, as a favorite, Sonego sees 70% of his Grand Slam matches exceed 3.5 sets. Herbert, as an underdog, has 62.5% of his Grand Slam matches going to 4 sets or more. The odds of 2.68 for over 3.5 sets are attractive.

1.46

Confidence

High

Under 32.5 games in the match

Although the match could go to a 4th set, the total number of games could remain under 32.5. Sonego, as a favorite, tends to win relatively tight but not necessarily very long sets. Additionally, the odds of 1.46 for under 32.5 games are in line with Sonego's win odds, suggesting that bookmakers see a match with a moderate number of games. Both players do not have a strong tendency to play very long matches in terms of games.

3.55

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Lorenzo Sonego	Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Win \| Lose	3 7	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	25%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	75%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	37%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	62%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	42%	57%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	57%	57%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	33%