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Juan Pablo Varillas - Luis Guto Miguel: our prediction

24/03/2026•23:10

#61

Juan Pablo Varillas

2:0

7•5

6•0

Finished

#177

Luis Guto Miguel

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel Preview — Sao Paulo

Juan Pablo Varillas, the clear favorite (odds 1.46), faces the outsider Luis Guto Miguel (odds 2.52) in an ATP match in Sao Paulo. Varillas shows solid form and superior experience, while Miguel, although resilient, appears outmatched on paper. No injury alerts reported.

Our Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel predictions

Juan Pablo Varillas to Win

Varillas is the designated favorite (odds 1.46) with superior recent form (50% wins in last 10 matches vs 20% for Miguel). His statistics as a favorite (50% wins) and his ability to win sets as an outsider (70%) show his competitiveness. The gap in level and experience should be decisive.

1.48

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

Varillas has a strong tendency to finish his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite (70% in his last 10 matches outside Grand Slams). Miguel, for his part, often loses in 2 sets (62.5% of his defeats in 2 sets as an outsider). The probability of a match in two sets is therefore high.

1.53

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a match in two sets (Under 2.5 sets) makes Under 22.5 games plausible. If Varillas dominates as expected, close scores (e.g., 6-3, 6-4 = 19 games) or wider ones are possible. However, Miguel's occasional resistance (50% chance of winning a set as an outsider) could push it over this threshold, hence moderate confidence.

1.75

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Juan Pablo Varillas	Luis Guto Miguel
Win \| Lose	5 5	2 8
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	44%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	55%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	0%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%