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Juan Pablo Varillas - Facundo Acosta: our prediction

02/04/2026•16:05

#61

Juan Pablo Varillas

0:2

3•6

6•7

Finished

Facundo Acosta

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta Preview — Sao Leopoldo

Juan Pablo Varillas, the underdog, faces Facundo Acosta, the clear favorite. Acosta shows solid form and excellent performance as a favorite. Varillas, although less consistent, can be dangerous. The match could be tighter than the odds suggest.

Our Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta predictions

Facundo Acosta to Win

Acosta is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.39). His statistics are superior: 80% win rate in last 10 matches, 90% win rate as favorite. Varillas has only a 30% win rate as underdog. No injuries reported. The difference in level and confidence should be decisive.

1.37

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets

Set statistics favor a match in 2 sets. As a favorite, Acosta has won 70% of his matches in 2 sets recently. Varillas, as an underdog, has lost 60% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match is only 30% for each player in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Acosta's superiority should lead to a two-set victory.

1.45

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 2-set win for Acosta. If the match plays out in two tight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4), the total would be 20 games. Even with a tighter set, the total often remains under 22.5. Acosta, as a performing favorite, is capable of winning sets with comfortable margins. However, Varillas has shown an ability to win sets as an underdog (70%), which could increase the game count. Confidence is therefore medium.

1.65

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Juan Pablo Varillas	Facundo Acosta
Win \| Lose	6 4	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	20%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	100%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	44%	66%
% of match in 4 sets or more	55%	16%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%