Rugby

Tennis

Corentin Moutet - Casper Ruud: our prediction

08/04/2026•15:40

#34

Corentin Moutet

0:2

5•7

3•6

Finished

Casper Ruud

Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Casper Ruud, the clear favorite, faces Corentin Moutet on clay at Monte Carlo. Ruud, a surface specialist, is expected to win, but Moutet, unpredictable and playing at home, could push the match to three sets.

Our Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud predictions

Casper Ruud to Win

Ruud is the logical favorite (odds 1.39). A recognized clay-court specialist, he is more consistent and ranked much higher. His statistics as a favorite (60% win rate overall, 80% wins in 2 sets in non-Grand Slam events) are solid. No known injury alert.

1.35

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

This bet is consistent with a probable Ruud win in 2 sets (80% of his wins as a favorite outside Grand Slams). A tight 2-set match (e.g., 6-4, 6-4 = 20 games) or with one break per set is enough. Even a match in 3 short sets could stay under this limit.

1.71

Confidence

Medium

Over 2.5 Sets (Match to 3 Sets)

Moutet has a 50% probability of winning at least one set as an outsider. Ruud, although the favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of his matches as a favorite (odds 1.21-1.50). Moutet's unpredictable style and local crowd support could extend the match.

2.45

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Corentin Moutet	Casper Ruud
Win \| Lose	5 5	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	71%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%