Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud — Prediction
08/04/2026
#31
Corentin Moutet
14:15
Today
#4
Casper Ruud
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Casper Ruud, the clear favorite, faces Corentin Moutet on clay at Monte Carlo. Ruud, a surface specialist, is expected to win, but Moutet, unpredictable and playing at home, could push the match to three sets.
Our predictions
Casper Ruud to Win
Ruud is the logical favorite (odds 1.39). A recognized clay-court specialist, he is more consistent and ranked much higher. His statistics as a favorite (60% win rate overall, 80% wins in 2 sets in non-Grand Slam events) are solid. No known injury alert.
1.4
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with a probable Ruud win in 2 sets (80% of his wins as a favorite outside Grand Slams). A tight 2-set match (e.g., 6-4, 6-4 = 20 games) or with one break per set is enough. Even a match in 3 short sets could stay under this limit.
1.72
Confidence
Medium
Over 2.5 Sets (Match to 3 Sets)
Moutet has a 50% probability of winning at least one set as an outsider. Ruud, although the favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of his matches as a favorite (odds 1.21-1.50). Moutet's unpredictable style and local crowd support could extend the match.
2.43
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 71% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 16% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 71% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 100% |
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