Paula Badosa - Anna Kalinskaya: our prediction

Paula Badosa is designated as the favorite (odds 1.58). Her statistics as a favorite in non-Grand Slam tournaments (50% win rate overall, 75% for odds between 1.51 and 1.8) are solid. She also has a good percentage of wins in 2 sets (60%) when favorite. Against Kalinskaya, who has a 30% performance as an outsider, Badosa has the statistical and status advantage.

The players' statistics in non-Grand Slam tournaments indicate a high probability of a match ending in 2 sets. Badosa has 80% of her matches (all statuses) and 60% as favorite ending in 2 sets. Kalinskaya has 70% (all statuses) and 70% as favorite ending in 2 sets. The percentage of matches going to 3 sets is low (20% for Badosa, 30% for Kalinskaya all statuses). The logic of a Badosa win in 2 sets is consistent.

This bet is correlated to the prediction of a match ending in 2 sets. A match in 2 sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-3) totals 19 games, well under 22.5. Given the statistics showing a predominance of wins in 2 sets for both players, and especially if Badosa controls the match as the favorite, the total number of games should remain moderate. However, the margin is tighter than for the number of sets, hence a medium confidence level.