Rugby

Tennis

Paula Badosa - Julia Grabher: our prediction

21/04/2026•14:30

Paula Badosa

1:2

6•7

6•4

0•6

Finished

#84

Julia Grabher

Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher Preview — Madrid Open

Paula Badosa, the clear favorite (odds 1.16), faces Julia Grabher (odds 4.92) at the Madrid Open. Badosa shows solid form (5W/5L recently) and an excellent statistic of winning in 2 sets (80%) as a favorite. Grabher, less consistent (3W/7L), struggles against heavily favored opponents. No injuries reported. The match should be dominated by Badosa, with a high probability of a 2-set match.

Our Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher predictions

Victory for Paula Badosa

Badosa is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.16). Her statistics as a favorite are solid (60% win rate overall, 100% when odds between 1.0 and 1.2). Her recent form (5W/5L) is better than Grabher's (3W/7L). No injury disrupts her preparation. The difference in level and ranking should result in a victory.

1.16

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets (Match in 2 sets)

Badosa wins 80% of her matches (outside Majors) in 2 sets as a favorite. Grabher loses 90% of her matches (outside Majors) in 2 sets as an underdog. The probability of Grabher winning a set is low (30% as an underdog, 0% against an opponent with odds 1.0-1.2). The match dynamics and statistics strongly support a 2-set match.

1.32

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

A 2-set match favoring Badosa (e.g., 6-3, 6-2) would total 17 games. Badosa's statistics as a favorite (70% wins in 2 sets) and Grabher's difficulties (90% losses in 2 sets as an underdog) suggest a potentially one-sided match. However, the possibility of a tight set (e.g., 7-5) or a tie-break exists, which could increase the number of games. Confidence is therefore medium.

1.4

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Paula Badosa	Julia Grabher
Win \| Lose	5 5	3 7
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	12%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	12%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	28%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	28%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	25%	50%