Rugby

Tennis

Nicolas Jarry - Francesco Maestrelli: our prediction

02/03/2026•19:10

#19

Nicolas Jarry

1:2

4•6

6•4

6•7

Finished

#17

Francesco Maestrelli

Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli Preview — BNP Paribas Open, Qualification

Nicolas Jarry, the statistical favorite, faces Francesco Maestrelli in the Indian Wells qualifiers. Jarry, more experienced and higher-ranked, is expected to win, but Maestrelli could take a set.

Our Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli predictions

Francesco Maestrelli to win

Maestrelli is the designated favorite (odds 1.62). His recent stats are solid: 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, and 80% win rate when favored. He also has an excellent 2-set win rate (90%) outside of Grand Slams. Against a struggling Jarry (0 wins in last 10 matches), he holds a clear advantage.

1.67

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

The match is best-of-3 sets (non-Grand Slam). Maestrelli, the favorite, has a 100% 2-set win rate when favored (10/10). Jarry, on the other hand, has a 60% 2-set loss rate when an underdog. The probability of a 2-set match (2-0 win for Maestrelli) is therefore very high.

1.58

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

If Maestrelli wins the match in 2 sets as expected, the total number of games should remain moderate. His stats as a favorite (few sets lost) and Jarry's poor form (100% recent losses) suggest potentially one-sided sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4 = 19 games). However, the margin is tight, as two close sets (7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) would exceed the limit.

1.99

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Nicolas Jarry	Francesco Maestrelli
Win \| Lose	10	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	33%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	33%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	28%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	80%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	71%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	80%