Rugby

Tennis

Nicolas Jarry - Nerman Fatic: our prediction

10/04/2026•17:20

#19

Nicolas Jarry

2:0

6•1

6•4

Finished

#80

Nerman Fatic

Nicolas Jarry vs Nerman Fatic Preview — Madrid

Nicolas Jarry, the clear favorite, faces Nerman Fatic in Madrid. Jarry, more experienced and higher-ranked, is expected to win, but Fatic could put up a fight and take a set.

Our Nicolas Jarry vs Nerman Fatic predictions

Nicolas Jarry to Win

Nicolas Jarry is the clear favorite (odds 1.40). His status, experience, and recent form (2 wins in last 10 matches, but often as an outsider) point to him as the stronger player. As a favorite (odds 1.21-1.5), he has a 40% win rate in his last 5 matches in this range. No injuries reported.

1.34

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

A three-set match (previous prediction) increases the likelihood of exceeding 22.5 games. Even in two sets, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games), the limit is close. Jarry's tendency to drop sets as a favorite and Fatic's ability to win one support this bet. A three-set score like 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 yields 29 games.

1.9

Confidence

Medium

Over 2.5 Sets (Match goes to 3 sets)

Statistics suggest a risk of the favorite dropping a set. Jarry, as a favorite (odds 1.21-1.5), lost at least one set in 60% of his recent matches (3/5). Fatic, as an outsider (odds 1.21-1.5), wins at least one set in 75% of his matches (3/4). The match dynamics and Fatic's level make a three-set match plausible.

2.48

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Nicolas Jarry vs Nerman Fatic

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Nicolas Jarry vs Nerman Fatic Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Nicolas Jarry	Nerman Fatic
Win \| Lose	2 8	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	60%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	60%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	75%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	80%