Rugby

Tennis

Nicolas Jarry - Miguel Damas: our prediction

07/04/2026•10:40

#19

Nicolas Jarry

1:0

6•1

Finished

#27

Miguel Damas

Nicolas Jarry vs Miguel Damas Preview — Madrid

Nicolas Jarry, the clear favorite, faces Miguel Damas, the underdog, in a men's tennis match in Madrid. Recent statistics and odds suggest a clear superiority for Jarry, but Damas has shown an ability to win sets as an outsider.

Our Nicolas Jarry vs Miguel Damas predictions

Nicolas Jarry to Win

Jarry is the designated favorite (odds 1.41). His statistics as a favorite (50% wins in last 10 matches) are solid in this context, and he faces an opponent, Damas, whose win rate as an outsider is only 50%. The level gap suggested by the odds and the absence of known injury concerns support his victory.

1.4

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Although Jarry is favored, his statistics show he loses at least one set as a favorite 50% of the time. Furthermore, Damas has won at least one set as an outsider in 80% of his recent matches. This indicates a high probability that Damas wins a set, taking the match to at least three sets. Jarry's stats in non-Grand Slam events show 40% of matches go to 3 sets when he is the favorite.

2.46

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Nicolas Jarry vs Miguel Damas

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Nicolas Jarry vs Miguel Damas Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Nicolas Jarry	Miguel Damas
Win \| Lose	10	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%